Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. Filling in this time, Jeremy Robb, senior director of Economic and Industry insights, covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.

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Report Summary – June 11, 2024

The Cox Automotive Auto Market Report for June 11, 2024, highlights a mixed landscape. While consumer spending shows signs of caution, vehicle sales – both new and used – are performing robustly. Financing trends reveal higher borrowing costs, but the availability of low APR loans persists. Supply chain dynamics indicate fluctuating inventory levels, and pricing trends suggest a gradual decline in used vehicle prices. Lastly, key performance indicators from Cox Automotive’s various platforms provide a nuanced view of market conditions, reflecting both challenges and opportunities for dealers and consumers alike.

Consumer Spending Trends

Consumer spending has shown a significant slowdown in early May 2024. Restaurant spending growth has decreased by 10%, while retail spending is down by 3% year-to-date. This trend is indicative of a cautious consumer market.

Employment and Consumer Sentiment

• Continuing Claims: Nationally, continuing claims for unemployment benefits stand at 1.79 million.
• Consumer Sentiment: There has been a 1.2% increase in the Index of Consumer Sentiment in early June, attributed to a decline in gas prices. The interplay between consumer sentiment and fuel prices suggests a volatile but improving consumer outlook.

Vehicle Sales Insights

• Retail Vehicle Sales: New vehicle sales have increased by 3% in the latest week and are up 9% year over year. Used vehicle sales have risen by 2% week over week and 12% compared to 2023.
• Low APR Financing: The share of loans with rates below 3% has increased slightly from May levels but remains lower than in 2023.
• Average Auto Loan Rates: In June 2024, the average auto loan rate for used vehicles rose to 14.3%, while the average rate for new vehicles increased to 10.13%.

Supply and Pricing Dynamics

• New Vehicle Supply: Inventory is 22 days higher year over year but has decreased by 4% week over week.
• Used Vehicle Supply: Inventory is down 8% year over year and 1% week over week.
• Pricing Trends: The average wholesale price for Model Year (MY) 2021 vehicles declined by 0.8%, and the retail price dropped by 0.3% in the last week.

Cox Automotive Leading Indicators

• Leads: Leads on Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book have decreased year over year in June. Autotrader leads are down month over month, while Kelley Blue Book leads have increased.
• Dealer Metrics: Unique leads per dealer are down year over year for both new and used vehicles, and both have decreased month over month on Dealer.com-hosted websites. Meanwhile, unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack increased by 2% year over year last week, with used vehicle applications rising and new vehicle applications falling.
• Service Trends: Service trends on Xtime remain stable compared to last year, though completed appointments are down 2% year over year.

Jeremy Robb

Senior Director of Economic and Industry Insights

Jeremy Robb leads a team at Cox Automotive that interfaces directly with clients and executive leadership across sales, strategy and finance utilizing his background helping companies consume data and insights to make better business decisions. He has been focused on finance and strategy for large corporations in the financial services and automotive industry for the past 20 years. Jeremy joined Cox Automotive in 2018 after spending 6 years at Nissan where he led functions in finance and remarketing. He is based in Nashville, Tennessee.