Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: Nov. 12

Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.

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Report Summary – Nov. 12, 2024

Highlights

• Consumer sentiment has reached a 3.5-year high in November.
• Retail vehicle sales have increased over the last month, showing double-digit growth compared to 2023.
• Average auto loan rates have started to decline in early November.

Consumer Sentiment Reaches New Heights Consumer sentiment has seen a significant increase, reaching a 3.5-year high in November.

• The Index of Consumer Sentiment increased by 1.4% in October.
• It has risen by 4.6% so far in November.

Retail Vehicle Sales on the Rise Retail vehicle sales for both new and used vehicles have shown a notable increase over the past month.

• Sales trends have risen and remain up double digits against 2023.
• New and used retail sales have both contributed to this growth.

Decline in Auto Loan Rates Auto loan rates have started to decline, providing some relief to consumers.

• The average used auto loan rate is now at 13.79%.
• The average new auto loan rate stands at 9.25%.

Impact of Hurricanes on Consumer Spending Consumer spending trends were volatile in September and October due to hurricanes Helene and Milton.

• Total spending trends were impacted by these hurricanes.
• The volatility in spending was observed in the trailing 52 weeks as of October 12, 2024.

Mixed Supply Situation for New and Used Vehicles The supply situation for new and used vehicles shows mixed trends.

• New vehicle supply remains higher and increased last week.
• Used vehicle supply continues to decline.

Diverging Used Price Trends Used vehicle prices are showing diverging trends between retail and wholesale markets.

• The average retail price for model year 2021 declined by 0.6% in the most recent week.
• Wholesale prices remained unchanged.

Leading Indicators

Leads and service trends are showing mixed results.

• Leads: Leads are down year over year in early November on Autotrader but up on Kelley Blue Book, and leads are up for the month compared to October on Kelley Blue Book.
• Dealer Metrics: Unique leads per dealer are down year over year so far in November for new and used vehicles on websites hosted by Dealer.com, but new leads are up for the month compared to October. Unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack were up 3% year over year last week with the trend in applications per dealer declining week over week.
• Service Trends: Service trends on Xtime relative to last year declined last week, as completed appointments were down 4% year over year.