Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: April 1

Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.

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Report Summary – April 1, 2025

• New-vehicle inventory has seen a slight increase recently, although it remains lower compared to previous years.
• The supply of used vehicles is tightening, which is impacting the market dynamics.
• The trends in used vehicle prices have diverged, with retail prices showing stability and wholesale prices experiencing fluctuations.

Consumer Spending Growth

Consumer spending experienced weak but positive growth towards the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025.

• The highest year-over-year growth was observed in the final week of 2024 and early January 2025.
• Data sourced from Bloomberg indicates fluctuations in weekly spending percentages throughout 2024 and early 2025.

Consumer Sentiment

The Index of Consumer Sentiment showed a decline at the start of 2025.

• The index fell by 0.1% in January, 1.7% in February, and 3.9% in March 2025.
• This data was sourced from Morning Consult/AAA and compared with the average price of unleaded gas.

Unemployment Claims

Continuing claims for unemployment benefits have decreased.

• The number of continuing claims dropped to 1.86 million nationally.
• This information was sourced from Moody’s Analytics and the U.S. Department of Labor.

New-Vehicle Inventory Trends

New inventory increased by half a point this week to 2.67 million units, down 2.7% from the same time in 2024.

• Despite substantial increases over the past several years, new inventory remains down 31% compared to 2019, with days’ supply down 24% over the same period.
• New days’ supply decreased by 4.6% over the most recent week, falling to 71.5 days, the lowest level since August.
• The decline in days’ supply was significant last week due to increased sales, now 10% lower than last year.

Used-Vehicle Inventory Trends

Used inventory was relatively flat, falling to 2.15 million units, down 1.2% from 2024.

• Used days’ supply declined by 4% on the week, moving down to 37.9 days, almost 9% lower than the same time last year.
• Manheim wholesale supply declined by 1% over the most recent week, with days’ supply moving to 23.3 days, down 1.0% year over year.

Price Patterns

The average model year 2022 price for retail remained unchanged, while wholesale prices increased last week.

• Used price patterns diverged in the first quarter.
• 3-year-old retail prices showed no change last week, remaining flat for the second week in a row, and are 1.6% higher than the same week last year.
• 3-year-old wholesale values increased by three-tenths of a point last week, now 0.2% lower than last year for the week.

Tax Refund Season

Total number of refunds is up 1% versus 2024, with the average refund higher by 5% year over year.

• Through March 21st, refunds issued are up 1.3% against last year’s levels, with 53% of all refunds estimated to have been issued so far, up 1% compared to last year for the same week.
• $179.469 billion has been issued as of the most recent week, up 6% year over year.
• The average refund is now $3,221, up 4.6% year over year.

Cox Automotive Leading Indicators

• Dealer leads were up year over year in March on Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book, and leads were up for the month compared to February on both sites.
• Unique leads per dealer for new vehicles were up year over year in March but down for used vehicles on websites hosted by Dealer.com. However, new and used leads were both up strongly for the month compared to February.
• Unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack were up 12% year over year last week, with the trend in applications per dealer strong and stable week over week.
• Service trends on Xtime relative to last year were stable and strong in the week ending March 22, as completed appointments were up 3% year over year.