Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: August 6th

Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.

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Report Summary – Aug. 6, 2024

Consumer spending shows volatility, while unemployment claims continue to rise. Though new and used auto sales rebounded, high loan rates and supply impact persist. While used-vehicle prices show mixed trends, Cox Automotive’s leading indicators suggest a decrease in leads across platforms.

Consumer Sending Experiences a Roller-Coaster Ride

The latest data indicates a volatile picture unfolding as consumer spending dips in June’s second half, only to recover in the month’s final week. Yet even amid the market’s turbulent swings, overall growth seems to be slowing down.

Jobless Claims Keep Mounting

While spending fluctuates, unemployment claims show a more stable, though less welcome, trend – they are consistently rising. Continuing claims hit 1.88 million nationwide and are trending upward.

Consumer Sentiment Displays a Slight Uptick

Despite the challenges, there’s a glimmer of hope: The consumer sentiment index inched up both in June and July, a small but encouraging sign of improved market confidence.

Auto Sales Bounce Back but Fail to Reach Spring Levels

New and used auto sales are making a comeback. New-vehicle sales increased by 4%, and used sales followed suit with a 2% rise, recovering from recent disruptions.

Low APR Financing Stumbles

Sadly, rates below 3% dwindled so far in August compared to July. The 0% APR rate offers some solace as it’s higher than in 2023 but lower than last month.

Auto Loan Rates Show Little Change, Remain High

The high auto loan rates continue to burden consumers, with average used rates at a hefty 14.04% and new rates at 9.92%, showing little change from the previous month.

Supply Impact Lingers

The supply side continues to strain the market, with new-vehicle supply being 46 days more year over year but down 2% week over week, while used supply remained flat over the last week.

Mixed Trends in Used-Vehicle Pricing

The used-vehicle market paints a mixed picture. Average Model Year 2021 wholesale prices rose slightly to 0.2%, while retail price declines have slowed, falling 0.2% week over week.

Cox Automotive Leading Indicators

• Leads: On Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book, leads are down year over year so far in August, and leads are unchanged for the month compared to July on Autotrader but down on Kelley Blue Book.
• Dealer Metrics: Unique leads per dealer for new and used vehicles on Dealer.com-hosted websites have also dropped year over year in July. Unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack were up 7% year over year last week, with applications per dealer improving week over week.
• Service Trends: Service trends on Xtime improved last week relative to last year, as completed appointments were down 2% year over year.