Cox Automotive Auto Market Report: Oct. 1

Cox Automotive’s Auto Market Report video delivers a comprehensive analysis of the current automotive market. Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke leads our effort to translate data and trends into actionable insights. This video covers a wide range of topics, including consumer spending patterns, consumer sentiment, retail vehicle sales, financing rates, supply dynamics, pricing trends and leading indicators from Cox Automotive’s extensive data ecosystem.

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Report Summary – Oct. 1, 2024

Consumer spending on automobiles has slowed and remains volatile, while retail vehicle sales are declining for both new and used cars. Meanwhile, auto loan rates have stabilized, showing minimal changes in September.

Consumer Spending Trends

Consumer spending growth has turned negative since mid-June and remains weak.

• Spending trends have been volatile, with fluctuations observed week over week.
• The Index of Consumer Sentiment increased slightly in August and September, influenced by falling gas prices.

Retail Vehicle Sales

Retail vehicle sales are experiencing a slow decline.

• Both new and used vehicle sales have been decreasing over the past few weeks.
• The supply of new vehicles has increased, while the supply of used vehicles remains tight.

Auto Loan Rates

Auto loan rates have shown little change in September.

• The average interest rate for new auto loans is 9.54%, while used auto loans average 13.93%.
• The share of low-interest rate loans (below 3%) has decreased to 10.5%.

Supply Situation

The supply of new and used vehicles presents a mixed picture.

• New vehicle supply has been higher over the last month.
• Used vehicle supply continues to be tight, contributing to price stability.

Used-Vehicle Price Trends

Used-vehicle prices are starting to decline again.

• The average retail price for model year 2021 vehicles decreased by 0.3% recently.
• Wholesale prices for used vehicles also saw a decline of 0.7%.

Leading Indicators

Leads and service trends are showing mixed results.

• Leads: Leads on Autotrader and Kelley Blue Book are down year over year in September.
• Dealer Metrics: Unique credit applications per dealer on Dealertrack were up 3% year over year last week.
• Service Trends: Service trends on Xtime declined, with completed appointments down 4.5% year over year.